SPORTS ADVISORS
(5) Louisville (18-4, 13-9 ATS) at Notre Dame (12-10, 4-12 ATS)
Two teams headed in completely opposite directions square off when Louisville travels to the Joyce Center to take on Notre Dame.
The Fighting Irish got belted at UCLA on Saturday, losing 89-63 as an 11½-point underdog for their seventh consecutive SU loss and eighth straight ATS setback. Notre Dame is being outscored by an average of nearly 14 ppg during the seven-game skid (85-71.1), with its closest margin of defeat being a seven-point loss. In the last five games, the Irish have been outshot by seven percentage points (46.2-39.2) and outrebounded by an average of 39.8-33.4.
The Cardinals dropped St. John’s 60-47 as an 11-point road chalk Sunday, bouncing back from their 68-51 setback to No. 1 Connecticut as a 2½-point home chalk on Feb. 2. Louisville is on a 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS tear, allowing only two opponents to break 70 points in that stretch and holding six teams to 60 points or less. On the road this season, the Cardinals are averaging 67.4 ppg on 42.7 percent shooting, while holding opponents to just 56 ppg on 35.8 percent shooting.
Notre Dame’s losing streak began with an 87-73 overtime loss at Louisville one month ago, ending the Irish’s 3-0 ATS run in this rivalry. The Cardinals have taken three of the last four meetings SU.
The Cardinals, who are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in the extremely deep Big East, are on positive pointspread rolls of 22-6-1 on the highway, 38-13-2 in conference play, 4-0 after allowing less than 50 points in a game, 6-1 after a spread-cover, 7-2 after a SU win and 5-2 against winning teams.
On the flip side, the Irish (3-7 SU, 2-8 ATS in the Big East) are in pointspread funks of 0-7 in conference action, 0-6 after a SU loss and 1-4 at home, and their current 0-8 ATS slide has all come against winning teams. Also, Notre Dame has lost consecutive home games after winning its previous 45 in a row at the Joyce Center.
The under is on runs for Louisville of 4-1 on the road against teams with a winning home mark and 54-24-2 versus teams with a home winning percentage above .600, and the under is 5-1 in Notre Dame’s last six at home. Otherwise, though, the over for the Irish is on stretches of 6-2 overall, 20-7 against the Big East and 19-7 against teams with a winning percentage above .600.
ATS ADVANTAGE: LOUISVILLE
(11) UCLA (19-4, 12-10 ATS) at (18) Arizona State (18-5, 12-7 ATS)
Surging UCLA gets back into conference play with a trip to Tempe to take on Arizona State in a battle of ranked Pac-10 teams.
The Bruins pelted Notre Dame 89-63 Saturday as an 11½-point chalk to post their fourth straight win and cover, further shaking off a previous three-game ATS skid (1-2 SU). During its four-game run, UCLA has outscored opponents by 23 ppg (86-63). However, all four games were at Pauley Pavilion, and on the road this season, the Bruins are outscoring opponents by less than two buckets per game (69.3-65.5).
The Sun Devils swept a two-game trek to the Northwest last week, beating Oregon 66-57 Thursday and Oregon State 49-38 on Saturday, narrowly covering as an 8½-point favorite in both games. ASU is 6-3 SU and ATS in its last nine games, and defense has been a key, with the Sun Devils allowing no more than 58 points in all six wins and holding three opponents under 50.
The Bruins are 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS in Pac-10 play, including 4-1 (2-3 ATS) on the road. Arizona State is 7-4 SU and ATS in conference, but only 2-2 SU and ATS in Tempe. In fact, the Sun Devils got swept by Washington State (65-55) and Washington (84-71) in their last two home outings. Also, the SU winner has cashed in all 11 of ASU’s Pac-10 starts this season.
Arizona State stunned UCLA 61-58 in overtime as a six-point pup at Pauley Pavilion last month, halting a two-game SU and ATS uptick by the Bruins in this rivalry. Furthermore, ASU is 5-2 ATS in the last seven contests (all from the underdog role), despite going just 1-6 SU in that span.
The Bruins are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win of more than 20 points, but they are on pointspread rolls of 36-17-1 on the road, 4-1 after a spread-cover, 5-2 after a SU win and 14-5 on Thursday. The Sun Devils are on positive ATS runs of 5-2 on Thursday, 10-4-1 against the Pac-10 and 9-2 at home against teams with a road winning percentage above .600, but they are also 3-7 ATS in their last 10 starts following a spread-cover.
The over for UCLA is on tears of 6-0 overall (5-0 in the Pac-10), 4-0 after a SU win and 5-0 against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Conversely, the under for Arizona State is on runs of 7-2 overall (all against the Pac-10), 4-1 after a SU win and 8-2 on Thursday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(19) Gonzaga (17-5, 10-10 ATS) at St. Mary’s (18-4, 10-7-1 ATS)
Gonzaga, coming off a blowout loss on its home floor, heads to Moraga, Calif., for a West Coast Conference clash with St. Mary’s at McKeon Pavilion.
The Bulldogs got hounded by No. 14 Memphis 68-50 Saturday as a four-point home chalk, ending a nine-game winning streak (5-4 ATS) in which Gonzaga scored 83 points or more six times, including cracking 90 in three games. The Zags, who were held to a season-low point total Saturday, have averaged 80.1 ppg on the road this season, while allowing 67.6 ppg on just 36.7 percent shooting from the floor.
The Gaels have dropped three of their last four games (2-2 ATS), including Saturday’s 70-52 upset loss at Santa Clara as a five-point favorite. In its last five games, St. Mary’s is averaging 64.8 ppg – well off its season average of 73.8 – and allowing just a tick less at 64.6, while being outshot 46.1 percent to 44.3 percent. A big reason for the Gaels’ slump is the loss of starting guard Patty Mills (18.7 points per game), who broke his wrist in a 69-62 loss at Gonzaga on Jan. 29.
The Bulldogs sit atop the West Coast Conference standings with an 8-0 record (4-4 ATS), including 3-0 on the highway (2-1 ATS). St. Mary’s started conference play with five straight wins (3-2 ATS) before slumping to 1-3 (2-2 ATS) in its last four. The Gaels have won all four WCC home games (2-2 ATS).
Although Gonzaga beat St. Mary’s two weeks ago, it failed to cover as a 9½-point home chalk, so these rivals have alternated spread-covers over the past five meetings. The home team is on a 4-1 ATS run during this stretch. In fact, the host has won nine of the last 10 meetings between these schools, including the last six in a row.
The Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit home loss and 4-1 ATS in their last five coming off a pointspread setback, but they are on ATS slides of 2-8 against winning teams and 3-7 on the highway against teams with a winning home record. The Gaels are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 contests against winning teams, but they are on ATS upticks of 4-0 after a non-cover and 6-1 at home versus teams with a road win percentage above .600. Also, they covered in their only game this season as an underdog (at Gonzaga).
The over for Gonzaga is on runs of 4-0 on the road, 4-1 after a SU loss, 8-2 after an ATS setback and 9-4 on the road against teams with a winning home record. Conversely, the under for St. Mary’s is on streaks of 7-2 overall (all in conference play), 5-1 on Thursday and 4-1 at home against teams with a winning road record.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GONZAGA
NBA
Miami (27-24, 23-26-2 ATS) at Chicago (23-29, 25-26-1 ATS)
The struggling Heat travel to the Windy City for a matchup with the streaking Bulls inside the United Center.
Miami has lost five of its last seven SU and ATS, including Tuesday’s 99-82 home loss to the Nuggets as a 1½-point underdog. The Heat have also dropped their last three roadies (1-2 ATS), and they haven’t scored more than 96 points in any of their last four games overall.
Chicago may have finally hit its stride this season, winning five of its last seven overall and going 7-0-1 ATS in its last eight contests. The Bulls earned a 107-102 home win over the Pistons on Tuesday, cashing as three-point favorites. They have scored 100 points or more in six straight and eight of their last 10, and they are averaging 110 ppg and 48 percent shooting in their last five.
The Heat got a 90-77 home win over the Bulls back on Dec. 26, covering as 5½-point favorites. However, the Bulls have won four straight over Miami inside the United Center, including a 99-92 victory a year ago as two-point home pups, and they are 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 series clashes in Chicago. Lastly, the underdog has a 5-1 ATS edge in the last six meetings.
In addition to going 2-5 ATS in its last seven overall, Miami is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 Thursday games, but the Heat are on positive ATS runs of 5-1 against Central Division squads, 7-2 after getting one day off and 6-2 against teams with a losing record. Chicago is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 home games, 1-7 ATS in its last eight against Southeast Division teams and 17-37-1 in its last 55 after a straight-up win, but the Bulls are 6-1 ATS in their last seven Thursday games.
The Heat are on “over” streaks of 5-2 overall, 8-2 on the road, 10-1 after a straight-up loss and 4-0 against Central Division teams. Chicago is also riding “over” trends of 5-0 overall, 5-2 at home, 11-5 against the Eastern Conference and 6-2 against Southwest Division squads. In this series, the over is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Chicago, but the under has cashed in four of the last five overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Boston (43-11, 30-24 ATS) at Dallas (31-20, 24-27 ATS)
The Celtics continue their six-game Western Conference road trip with a stop at the American Airlines Arena in Dallas as they face the Mavericks.
Boston opened its trip with Wednesday’s 89-77 victory in New Orleans, cashing as a seven-point road chalk. The Celtics are 19-7 SU on the road this season but just 9-17 ATS, but they have won six in a row on the highway (5-1 ATS).
Dallas comes into this one having won two straight (1-1 ATS) and six of the last seven (5-2 ATS) overall. On Tuesday, the Mavs blew out the Kings 118-100, cashing as 10½-point favorites to run their home winning streak to five (4-1 ATS). Dallas has scored 100 points or more in eight of its last nine and is are averaging 105.8 ppg in its last five while shooting 49.8 percent from the floor.
The Celtics are on a 3-0 SU and ATS roll in this series, including a 124-109 blowout win on Jan. 25 as nine-point home favorites. They have gotten the cash in six of the last seven, and last year they went to Dallas and got a 94-90 win as a 3½-point chalk.
Boston is riding a plethora of positive ATS streaks, including 10-4 overall, 7-1 on the road, 25-12 against Western Conference teams, 11-4 on Thursday and 11-3 against Southwest Division foes. Dallas is just 6-20-1 ATS in its last 27 Thursday contests, but the Mavs are on ATS runs of 5-2 overall, 4-1 at home and 4-1 after a straight-up win.
The Celtics are on “under” stretches of 25-9 on the road, 10-3 on the second night of a back-to-back, 8-3 on Thursdays and 16-5 on the road against teams with a winning home record, however the over is 5-1 in their last six overall and 5-1 in their last six against Western Conference competition. The Mavericks have stayed below the total in 11 of their last 15 against the Atlantic Division and six of their last eight against teams with a winning record, but they are on “over” streaks of 7-3 overall, 5-1 at home and 5-1 after they get one day off. In this series, the over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
